Friday, 8 September 2017

Why Defeating A Sitting African President Is Near Impossible


Many have tried. Many have failed. It should be the ninth wonder of the world. An African president only leaves when he wants to or probably dies prematurely. Opposition leaders across the continent have had nightmares trying to dethrone these leaders. They have failed spectacularly. Over and over again. But why is it so hard?

First of all, it is a fact that defeating an incumbent tosses you against great odds.
When President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria handed over power to Muhammadu Buhari after losing the election in 2015, we had one of those rare moments.
On the other hand, we have sitting presidents who have each been ruling for more than 20 years. In these countries, elections are just but a formality and are usually marred with rigging and violence.
Sitting presidents have government machinery under their control. They have access to numerous resources that they use in campaigns and even voter bribery. While in these positions, the can plant stooges in the police, judiciary and the government and have a layer of protection in the event that something goes wrong.
Below is a list of the top 5 longest ruling presidents as at 2017;
Paul Biya – Cameroon- 42 years
Teodoro Obiang Mbasogo- Equatorial Guinea- 38 years
Robert Mugabe- Zimbabwe- 37 years
Yoweri Museveni- Uganda -31 years
Omar al-Bashir –Sudan -28 years
The only proven way that beats incumbents is to have a candidate who has a message that rings and resonates. They has to be a stark ideological contrast with the incumbent. Unfortunately, most of these people do not see the light of the day or are frustrated until they give up.

Revealed: Why Isaac Rutto left NASA for Jubilee



Isaac Rutto

They call him the ‘prodigal’ son who returned home after a terrible time outside home. Many termed it ‘political suicide’ when former Bomet Governor, Isaac Ruto joined the National Super Alliance as a principal. He came with his party, Chama Cha Mashinani but the Jubilee Party wave in his home turf was too strong as it swept him off the seat. He has now returned ‘home’.
He appeared at a Jubilee rally in Kapkatet Grounds in Kericho town that was addressed by President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.
He said he would support the re-election of the president in the forthcoming October 17 repeat election.
Ever since election results started trickling in after August 8, many noted his absence in the press conferences held by NASA. Although the other co-principals said he was attending to other matters, it is now clear he was not.
So why did he decide to return?
Politics in any part of the world is about self interest and preservation. A politician’s decisions are motivated by what lies ahead and what seems best for him. This is why they say there is nothing like permanent enmity in politics.
After he lost his gubernatorial seat to Ms. Joyce Laboso, he now believes that he had underestimated his popularity. Indeed, he might claim that the poll had its share of irregularities, but considering his county is Jubilee territory, he was up against great forces.
In the event that the ruling party wins the next election, he will probably be rewarded with a fat position in the government.
Either way, he has better chances where he is now because of the power of incumbency.

Thursday, 7 September 2017

Big Blow To Kalonzo Musyoka As Hassan Omar Resigns From Wiper


Hassan Omar Resigns From Wiper
Kalonzo Musyoka's future in Kenyan politics continues to be riddled with difficulties as calamities befall him day after day.
Dr Alfred Mutua put the former deputy president's influence in Ukambani into question after his Maendeleo Chap Chap movement dealt Wiper several defeats in the recent elections.
Now one of his most ardent supporters seems to have lost faith in him and his Wiper Democratic Movement. Today, former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar Hassan handed his written resignation letter to the Wiper Democratic Movement.
The former senator cited a number of things as reasons for his decision among them his pursuit of justice after the gubernatorial race, furthering his studies through a scholarship and reorganizing his political path.
He has also stated categorically that he will not participate in the election campaigns of Raila Odinga and his deputy Kalonzo Musyoka. He nonetheless wished the two the best in their endeavors.
The governor's race was complicated by Hassan Joho's public spat with the president and his troubles with government that brought him out as a victim thereby giving him unprecedented political mileage.
Many saw Hassan Omar's run in the gubernatorial race as premeditated political suicide, the kind of which would send him into irredeemable political oblivion. So it came to pass.

Paul Otuoma Move To Jubilee Party Once Again Proves His Lack Of Decisiveness

Paul Otuoma Move To Jubilee Party Once Again Proves His Lack Of Decisiveness

Former Funyula member of parliament Dr Paul Otuoma is a man who first came into the limelight by unseating an incumbent vice president. He served Uncle Moody Awori a humiliating defeat that saw the old man retire from politics altogether.
So pleased was Raila Odinga with this sort of victory that he gave Paul Otuoma a ministry to lead in the coalition government that was formed thereafter. Many had expected the prime minister to appoint Ababu Namwamba the position as he had endlessly supported him both in parliament and in kind.
Soon after the same Ababu Namwamba and Paul Otuoma led a group of dissidents to decamp from Orange Democratic Movement.
It quickly emerged that Ababu Namwamba, Benjamin Washiali and others had been bought out by the deputy president's well oiled money machine.
Ababu was welcomed with opens arms to the Labor Party where he took over as party leaders. Vanity is human and Ababu must have felt at par with Raila Odinga. But Paul Otuoma had nowhere to go.
He was soon forced to eat the humble pie and return to ODM. He was publicly welcomed back to the party at an event in Siaya County where he denied ever leaving.
After losing out to strongman Sospeter Ojaamong in the party primaries, Paul Otuoma decided to run as an independent in the Busia gubernatorial race. He lost to the man again in the elections and has since moved to court to contest the results.
Dr Paul Otuoma's decision to contest the results in a court of law is not surprising. Many poll losers including his former party leader have done so too. Perhaps whats more surprising is his decision to join Jubilee Party.
The man has joined the bandwagon of Western Province politicians who depend on political handouts to stay afloat in the murky waters of politics. He has been appointed Kenyatta's point man in Busia County.
Many are eager to see where his indecisiveness takes him next.

Is IEBC In Crisis? Disturbing Developments Suggest


Image result for wafula chebukati
Wafula Chebukati.|PHOTO-COURTESY

Where there is smoke there is fire. Recent developments involving the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission show that not all is as rosy as it may seem. 
A leaked memo signed by the Chairperson, Wafula Chebukati and addressed to the CEO, Ezra Chiloba suggests otherwise. Later on Thursday 7 September evening, another notice by commissioner appeared and disowned the memo. What is happening? 


Below is the leaked memo, allegedly written by Mr. Chebukati;




Here is response as posted on the IEBC Twitter handle


It is worth noting that this later press release has not been signed by all the commissioners.
Well, we can only guess what is going on. This comes after NASA rejected the team appointed by the chairperson to run the October 17 elections. The Jubilee Party also joined in and rejected the team citing several reasons why they were not comfortable with the appointments.

Meanwhile, Kenyans on twitter aired out their thoughts;





Drums Of War: Moses Kuria Threatens To Circumcise Luos As His Remarks Elicit Violence On Thika Road

Moses Kuria Hate Speech Luos Circumcise

Moses Kuria is at it once again with his loud mouth this time beating the drums of war too loudly. He has reportedly launched a manhunt for all those who did not vote in Kiambu and the "demons" who voted for Raila Odinga.
Related,
 Through his Facebook account (he has continuously denied ownership of this Facebook account), he spoke of Kiambu people seething with anger after their 1million votes were cancelled by four people.
Moses Kuria Hate Speech Luos Circumcise
Moses Kuria's post
  
A post shared by Wanjiku Revolution, it is suggested Moses Kuria threatened to circumcise Luos with scissors, Raila Odinga included. He also claimed he was not scared of arrest.

Kenyans who use the Thika Super highway have come out to report cases of harassment by rowdy youth who demanded to know their tribe and political allegiance then robbing them afterwards.
Moses Kuria Hate Speech Luos Circumcise

Moses Kuria Hate Speech Luos Circumcise
  Kenyans have condemned the member of parliament saying he should stop inciting Kenyans against each other.




More to follow.

Beatrice Elachi Elected Speaker Of Nairobi County Assembly


Beatrice Elachi Speaker Nairobi County Assembly
Members of Nairobi County Assembly across the political divide voted in former nominated senator Beatrice Elachi as their new speaker.
The lady from Western province trounced her closest rival Ali Abdi by garnering 90 votes. Ali Abdi had 27 votes followed by George Wainaina who had four votes. Karen Nyamu had one vote.
Former speaker Alex Ole Magelo did not defend his seat.
The governor of Nairobi City Mike Sonko attended the event that also saw the new MCAs sworn in. He was accompanied by his deputy Polycarp Igathe.

Beatrice Elachi unsuccessfully contested the Dagoretti North parliamentary seat. She was beaten by Paul Simba Arati.
Kenyans took to social media to congratulate her on her new role. It is worth noting she was overwhelmingly voted in by both Jubilee and NASA politicians.







Wednesday, 6 September 2017

Not Yet Uhuru! Leaders Who Risk Losing Their Seats To Petitions


After the Supreme Court of Kenya nullified Kenya's presidential election, it set the pace for a barrage of election petitions. The highest court in the land left the fate of several elected leaders in the balance. As of today morning, 76 politicians had filed petitions to the courts and rulings are expected to be complete by the next six months.

By Tuesday 5 September, six petitions had been filed challenging the election of governors in Embu (Martin Wambora), Taita Taveta (Granton Samboja), Garissa (Ali Korane), Mandera(Ali Roba), Kirinyaga (Ann Waiguru) and Tana River (Dhado Godana).

In Embu, former Senator Lenny Kivuti (Maendeleo Chap Chap) is seeking an annulment of Jubilee Party’s Martin Wambora win after an unsuccessful attempt to block his gazettement by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

Former Garissa County boss Nathif Jama (Wiper Democratic Movement) is contesting the election of Ali Korane (Jubilee) citing what he has described as a “sham election marred with irregularities”.

Kirinyaga’s Anne Waiguru (Jubilee) is facing a legal challenge from NARC Kenya’s Martha Karua. While she filed her petition at the Kerugoya High Court on Tuesday, she insisted that she had disputed the counting and tallying of the gubernatorial votes from the word go, saying there is a need for a recount.

In Mandera County, Governor Ali Roba (Jubilee) is facing a challenge from his bitter rival Hassan Noor of the Economic Freedom Fighters party.

Machakos Wiper gubernatorial candidate Wavinya Ndeti went on to challenge Governor Alfred Mutua’s re-election, citing electoral irregularities from which she argues the Maendeleo Chap Chap leader benefited, winning a second term.

Another 13 were challenging the election of MPs and two for senators.

Meanwhile, Farah Maalim has also moved to court seeking orders compelling IEBC to conduct parliamentary elections again in Garissa Township saying that Majority Leader Aden Duale was not validly elected.
He said the court should order IEBC to produce all materials including voter registers and counterfoils used at all polling stations.

Today, former Kisumu Governor Jack Ranguma filed a petition at the High Court in Kisumu to challenge the winner, Anyang Nyongo amid claims that the poll was marred by irregularities.

Although Members of Parliament, Senators and Governors have already taken oaths of office as per schedule, the next six months will determine if those declared winners will lead for the next five years.

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